Episode 08 Text and Sources

Hear the episode here: https://www.spreaker.com/user/14101666/episode-08-barbara-wright-from-the-refug

Broken Planet Headlines 8

1.  Beginning with recent science, a new report from the UN's World Meteorological Association finds that the world faces a 40% chance of one year in the next five being 1.5 degrees Celsius above late 19th century levels.  This refers to the average temperature increase globally during the year and is not necessarily likely to mean the threshold has been crossed permanently, as countries pledged to avoid under the Paris Agreement.  The report also found that there is a 90% chance one of the next five years will be the hottest on record.

Meanwhile another new report, published in the journal Earth System Dynamics, suggests that climate tipping points could have a domino effect on one another as they interact, leading to severe consequences.  A tipping point is the threshold at which an ecosystem - such as the Amazon Rainforest or Greenland ice sheet - reaches a level of heating damage that is self-perpetuating, leading to further heating.  It's speculated that some of these ecosystems have already reached their own tipping points.  Researchers found domino effects in one third of the 3 million computer simulations they ran, even when temperature rises were below 2 degrees Celsius.  Finally a report from the UN's Environment Program and Food and Agriculture Organisation suggests that humanity needs to rewild and restore an area of around 2.5 billion acres - roughly the size of China - by 2030 to meet climate and nature goals.

2.  The cost of polysilicon, an essential component in solar photovoltaic panels, has almost tripled since January, reaching $28 a kilogram in early June, a price not seen since around 2015.  According to one market analysis firm the cost increase is due to a combination of speculators hoarding the material and increasing demand outstripping supply.  A new investment report from the International Energy Agency nevertheless anticipates 10% growth in investment in solar in 2021 in the world's major economies, and urges that much more is needed to meet greenhouse gas reduction targets.  Almost half of the world's supply of polysilicon comes from Xinjiang province in China, with a further third of global production coming from the rest of the country.  The Xinjiang solar industry has been accused by Western media outlets such as Bloomberg of using forced labour to help it achieve dominance in the sector, leading to speculation that foreign sanctions could soon be imposed.  Critics of these reports suggest that media outlets are using circular logic, suggestive language and unreliable sources often funded by Western governments, and have failed to produce clear evidence for the allegations, in an attempt to disrupt the role of China in the clean energy transition.

In other renewable news, wind industry analysts and executives are predicting that most jobs created in the next few years by new U.S. projects such as the recently approved Vineyard Wind Project off the coast of Massachusetts are likely to be in Europe, as the U.S. currently lacks the manufacturing capacity to build all the necessary equipment.  A new report from the non-profit Global Wind Council suggests that the world needs to train almost half a million new workers in the industry by 2025 to meet growing demand.  Finally, a new study from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory finds that all the clean energy projects currently waiting to connect to the U.S. grid could theoretically bring the power sector halfway to decarbonisation, but that wait times for connectivity are increasing and many of these projects are unlikely to ultimately get finished.

3.  In other renewable resource news, the Biden administration has signalled that it intends to rely on ally countries such as Canada, Brazil and Australia to supply the bulk of the metals needed for electric vehicles, and focus on domestic processing of the metals to create jobs, in a bid to avoid confrontations with environmentalists.  A full strategy is currently under review.  A new report from the Pew Research Center finds that close to half of Americans are in favour of phasing out the production of vehicles with internal combustion engines by 2035, and around 4 in 10 say they are at least somewhat likely to consider an electric vehicle for their next purchase.  14% stated that they had no plans to buy any such private vehicle in the future.

In other EV news energy secretary Jennifer Granholm has sold her holdings in electric bus company Proterra, providing her with net capital gains of $1.6 million.  Granholm was previously a board member at the company and in April President Biden made a virtual visit to the company facility, leading to accusations of possible corruption.  The holdings were revealed in January before the new administration took office.  Finally in U.S. transport news, the Surface Transportation Reauthorization Act has been passed by the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works.  Transport advocates argue that the bill is largely once again following the status quo, failing to prioritise maintenance over highway expansion, reduce emissions and congestion, improve safety or increase equity.

4.  New research from the consulting organisation Cambridge Econometrics finds that low-income families within the European Union could face a doubling of home heating bills by 2030 - among other cost increases - if the bloc relies solely on emissions trading to achieve cuts for road transport and buildings.  EU nations recently agreed to bring the two sectors into the Emissions Trading Scheme and to raise the end-of-decade reduction target to 55%, based on 1990 levels.  Other options to help meet the goals could include improved national emissions targets and paying out climate dividends from carbon pricing to low-income households.  In a recent interview the EU climate chief, Frans Timmermans, said that the Emissions Trading Scheme is "a cornerstone" but "not the only way," and that the social consequences of changes in citizen-facing sectors must be considered from the outset.   

The increased EU reduction target has revealed an East-West divide within the bloc on how to fairly share the burden between member countries.  Under the old 40% target poorer countries were obliged to make lesser cuts, while under the 55% target some Western countries want the methodology to take into account cost-effectiveness, which poorer countries feel may unduly harm them.  The European Commission is considering implementing a carbon import levy on products such as steel and concrete to protect businesses inside the bloc from less environmentally-friendly products from abroad.  Detailed proposals on the levy and on burden sharing are expected in July.  In April a poll found that two thirds of EU citizens in both the East and West want their own country's climate target raised.

A new paper published in the journal Environmental Research Letters concludes that consumer subsidies for energy efficiency measures - such as heat pumps to replace gas boilers - will be more effective if concentrated in lower-income neighbourhoods, as residents in those locations have less financial means to make the improvements themselves.  Finally a new report from the World Bank finds that carbon pricing schemes globally raised a record $53 billion last year, up almost 18% from 2019.  The increase was due mainly to the 30% rise in the price of carbon in the EU.  As of 2021 the 64 global carbon pricing instruments identified by the Bank - which can also include taxation programs as well as trading schemes - cover 21% of global emissions, up from 15% last year.  This increase is mainly due to the impending launch of the world's largest emissions trading scheme in China at the end of June.  In most parts of the world the carbon price remains too low to spur necessary changes in industry behaviour, the World Bank concluded.

5.  In early June the Revive Economic Growth and Reclaim Orphaned Wells, or REGROW Act was introduced in the U.S. House to create employment cleaning up orphaned oil and gas wells, at a cost of $4.6 billion.  It's one a of a number of current bills with similar proposals.  One of the sponsors of the bill is Kelly Armstrong of North Dakota.  Last year the state government of North Dakota directed $66 million from The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or CARES act, to plug hundreds of old wells.  However most of the wells were not truly orphaned, with the state assuming ownership of over 300 wells from private companies in what critics have described as a bailout for the oil and gas industry.  Additionally the state sent millions of federal dollars from the CARES Act fund to companies to help them frack new wells.  Similar decisions were made in the state of Wyoming.  The NGO Carbon Tracker has catalogued over 2.4 million unplugged wells in the U.S. including those currently active, and estimates the cost of recovering all of them at $288 billion.  Its analysis further predicts that oil and gas industry bonds in government coffers will cover only around 1% of that cost.  The REGROW Act does not require fossil fuel companies to put any more money into clean up funds. 

The Biden administration through the American Jobs Plan has proposed $16 billion in federal funding to clean up abandoned wells and coal mines.  In May the Sierra Club and other environmental groups filed a lawsuit against the federal Office of Surface Mining, Reclamation, and Enforcement, alleging that the office has failed to require the state of West Virginia to improve its underfunded coal mine reclamation program.  As the industry declines funding for a bond pool to recover mining sites is also diminishing, with 118 closed mines in the state that have yet to be reclaimed.  In March the coal company BlackJewel got approval from a judge to abandon 33 coal mines in Kentucky.  The company was once the sixth-largest coal producer in the U.S. but began bankruptcy proceedings in 2019, forcing a standoff with its miners who blockaded coal trains in an attempt to receive their final paychecks.  The miners are still awaiting their full compensation following a successful class action lawsuit.  A strike by over 1000 coal miners at the Warrior Met Coal Mine in Alabama over paycuts and inequality within their company is currently entering its third month.  In April pollution from the mine, currently being operated by non-union labour, was seen in the nearby Black Warrior River, although regulators declined to close the mine down.  In late May the strikers condemned the actions of two executives from the United Mineworkers of America Union, who were caught on video physically and verbally threatening, with racist language, the producers of a left-wing podcast at a strike fundraising event.

6.  And finally, by the end of May more than a quarter of the state of California was categorised as having exceptional drought conditions, the most serious category.  The Sierra Nevada snowpack that normally provides two thirds of the state's water supply through the summer is almost gone due to hot weather.  The vast majority of the western U.S. is currently under some level of drought and another especially active fire season is predicted by experts.   In late April officials in California drafted a cease-and-desist order against Nestle in an attempt to prevent it siphoning millions of gallons of water out of the San Bernadino forest to be bottled.  The company has faced similar criticism across at least five other states.

A number of recent studies have shed new light on the effects of rising heat and water shortages.  One study published in the journal Nature finds that evapotranspiration - the transfer of water from the ground to the air - increased by 10% globally between 2003 and 2019.  Over half of the increase is driven by global land surface temperature.  Another study in Nature finds that oxygen levels in the world's lakes have fallen by between 5 and 19% in recent decades primarily due to rising temperatures, threatening wildlife and drinking water supplies.  Research published in Nature Climate Change estimates that 37% of all heat related deaths globally in the last 3 decades can be attributed to human-induced global heating.  And a study in the journal Atmospheric Research says the intensity, frequency, duration and impact of extreme heat days in Spain and Portugal will significantly increase, with a doubling of heatwave days expected over the next 30 years, and a climate that more closely resembles modern day Iraq.

The famous hydroelectric Hoover Dam between Arizona and Nevada, operational since 1935, is projecting an official water shortage for the first time ever by the end of this year due to rising drought and temperature changes.  Brazil is also reported to be facing its worst drought in almost a century during the coming months, with heavy potential impacts for the nation's massive hydroelectric industry.  Finally a heatwave in China during the past month has reduced rainfall and hydropower output, and led to rationing of power to commercial and industrial clients in the south of the country.