Episode 03 Text and Sources

Hear the podcast here: https://www.spreaker.com/user/14101666/episode-03-pedestrian-pandemic

Broken Planet Headlines 3

1.  Beginning with recent science, a study published in the journal Nature reveals that bottom-trawling for fish in the world's oceans is responsible for 1 billion tonnes of underwater emissions each year, a figure higher than the pre-pandemic total for all commercial aviation.  Trawlers drag weighted nets across seabeds, scooping up diverse lifeforms and disturbing the carbon stored in the sediment, resulting in carbon dioxide.  The authors of the study are hoping to calculate the amount of CO2 that ends up in the atmosphere by the end of this year, and are calling for the numbers to be included in countries' greenhouse gas inventories at international negotiations.  Oceans are estimated to currently absorb around 30% of human emissions.  Many analysts believe that without government subsidies the practice would not be financially viable as many areas of the ocean are now so heavily depleted of sea life.  The majority of bottom-trawling takes place around China and Europe. 

2.  Research published in the journal Frontiers in Forests and Global Change suggests that the Amazon rainforest may now be a net emitter of greenhouse gases rather than a sink.  The study is noteworthy because it attempts to take a more comprehensive view of emissions beyond the usual assessment of the Amazon's carbon cycle, where trees absorb CO2 while growing and release carbon when they are felled or catch fire.  For example, the potent warming gas methane is released when trees are burned and when wetlands dry out due to rising temperatures, with the paper stating that "wetland warming and [dam] construction could be the most significant" sources of emissions in the region.  Under Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro Amazon deforestation has risen to a twelve-year high.  Two other studies, published in Nature in the past two weeks, suggest that better protection for tropical secondary forests could make significant contributions to Brazil's emissions reduction pledges, and that the potential of the world's soils to absorb carbon may have been overestimated.

3.  A report from the UN Environment Programme has found that only 18% of government spending globally in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic can be considered green.  European airlines for example have sought almost 44 billion Euros in bailouts during the pandemic with little to no climate strings attached.  In the U.S. airlines received $50 billion in grants.  Similarly large sums of money have been handed to the aviation industry all across the world.  Other negative spending noted in the report includes Australia's US$41 million gas-fired recovery, coal spending in the US and China and road-building schemes in the UK and Poland.  Poland was also listed as a 'climate leader' in the recovery along with 5 other European countries, with a separate analysis from the website Energy Monitor finding that Poland has spent 82% of its recovery spending on green measures.  Poland is the most coal-reliant country in Europe and the only EU member to have not made a net-zero by 2050 pledge.

A separate report published in February concluded that only 12% of global economic recovery spending was going towards low-carbon projects, a proportion lower than the estimated 16% spent during the late 2000s financial crisis.  Meanwhile a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science calculates that, under normal economic conditions, American fossil fuel companies get implicit subsidies of $62 billion a year due to the climate and health costs that they impose upon society. 

4.  The U.S. Energy Information Administration is projecting that U.S. passenger air travel demand will return to pre-pandemic levels by 2025, but that jet fuel consumption will not reach the same level until almost 2030.  The pandemic has accelerated the retirement of older, less efficient planes, and caused increasingly younger models to be converted to cargo planes as e-commerce increased during lockdown.  The company Boeing is now converting aircraft that are under 10 years old as opposed to the average pre-pandemic age of closer to 20 years old.  One of the impediments to the wider adoption of cleaner planes is the high expense and slow turnover of the fleet.  Historically, the increased efficiency of commercial planes has been outstripped by the growth of the sector, resulting in consistently rising greenhouse gas output.  The government of Sweden is preparing to introduce a scheme that would charge airlines more to use Swedish airports for planes with a higher climate impact.  An analysis published in Science Direct in November found that just 1% of the global population is responsible for over 50% of aviation's CO2 emissions.

5.  The U.S. Government Accountability Office has launched a congressional probe into the so-called "refined coal" tax credit that sees at least $1 billion of taxpayer money funnelled to U.S. corporations each year.  The credit is supposed to reduce coal industry emissions of nitrogen oxides - the main contributor to acid rain and smog - mercury and other pollutants.  Reporting back in 2018 showed that over a third of the plants burning the chemically-treated coal had seen an increase in nitrogen oxides, according to EPA figures, while some others that saw a reduction may have only achieved it due to the implementation of technology unrelated to the refined coal, or by partially switching to cleaner fuels.  Power plants that failed to show a sufficient decrease in nitrogen oxides were able to collect the tax credit as the IRS allowed them to prove their reductions with unrepresentative laboratory tests rather than real-world data.  The tax credit is due to expire at the end of this year. 

In other air pollution news the wildfires that burned over 4 million acres in the U.S. in 2020 made North America the only region on Earth to have worse air quality than the year before the pandemic lockdowns.  Melbourne and Sao Paulo also saw increased air pollution due to major wildfires.  In September over three quarters of the world's most polluted cities were in the U.S.  Increased exposure to air pollution can cause a range of fatal health problems, with a number of studies also linking it to increased vulnerability to COVID-19.

6.  In news from Memphis, Tennessee, a county commission has made the decision not to sell county-owned land to make way for the Byhalia Connection Pipeline.  Developers now intend to explore other routes.  The proposed project is a 49-mile high pressure crude oil pipeline that opponents say will generate $7 billion in profits per year for the participating companies - Valero Energy and Plains All American Pipeline - and is an example of environmental racism.  The majority-black neighbourhoods of southwest Memphis are already encircled by fossil power plants, an oil refinery, an airport and a steel mill, though most air pollution in the area comes from land transportation.  The wind pattern of Memphis tends to lean southwards.  The proposed route of the pipeline sits over an aquifer that provides drinking water for over a million people.  Lawyers for the companies are also attempting to use eminent domain to take over privately-owned land and a land agent for the project claimed they chose, quote "a point of least resistance" in selecting a route through the area.

7.  The United Nations Green Climate Fund is facing criticism from whistleblowers regarding its internal management culture and some of the projects chosen for funding.  The GCF, based in South Korea, is the main financial mechanism of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, intended to help poorer countries in adaptation and mitigation strategies.  In what whistleblowers claim was a case of political interference, the oil-rich country of Bahrain - classed as "developing" under the UN climate convention - attempted to secure $32 million from the fund to clean up water produced by oil drilling activities.  An independent panel felt that water stress in Bahrain had more to do with wasteful consumption than climate change, but a former employee of oil company Saudi Aramco on the GCF board put pressure on employees to approve the project.  In the end Bahrain only acquired a small amount of funding for so-called "knowledge management," although project documents suggest recycling oil industry wastewater could be revisited in the future.  Internal emission audits are currently underway to review the funds portfolio.  The United States is currently under pressure from NGOs to increase its contributions to the fund following the withdrawal of support from the Trump administration.

Additionally, the Japanese bank SMBC has applied for a second time to be accredited by the Green Climate Fund.  SMBC has invested $86 billion in fossil fuels in the last 5 years and has assets worth $1.8 trillion.  It withdrew its first application to the fund last August after pushback from NGOs.  Approval would allow the bank to access funds and submit proposals.  This comes as the annual report from Rainforest Action Network, Banking on Climate Chaos, shows that banks have invested $3.8 trillion in fossil fuels since the Paris Agreement 5 years ago, and $751 billion in 2020, even as demand fell due to the economic collapse.

8.  The Indian government is rumoured to be considering a net-zero target of 2050 or perhaps 2047, to mark its centenary of independence from British colonial rule.  A goal of 2047 would put India's commitments ahead of most countries, including the UK and China, which has set a net-zero goal of 2060.  A lawmaker from the government's ruling party has submitted a private members bill to Parliament that proposes adopting a 2050 target.  The exact nature of the goal could be influenced by the pledges that other countries make, particularly net-zero and interim commitments expected from the U.S. in the run-up to the Earth Day Leaders' Climate Summit in April.  Historically India has emitted around one eighth of the emissions of the United States.  India is set to hold its largest ever auction of coal mines in the next few months, with 67 mines up for bidding by private companies.

9.  And finally, an analysis from the website Carbon Brief posits that UK emissions are down 51% from 1990 levels, marking the halfway point on the path to net-zero.  The reporting is based on official government figures, which means that it does not include emissions from international aviation, shipping or the impacts of goods imported from other countries.  The milestone was also reached unexpectedly and most likely temporarily after a massive 11% drop in emissions last year due to the COVID pandemic.  The analysis finds that the majority of the cut came from the UK's move away from coal power and cleaner industrial practices, with almost no progress having been made in transport.  Based on these figures the UK's emissions were at their lowest point since 1926 when a general strike by coal miners and other workers in heavy industry led to a dramatic reduction.

Electricity generated from renewables eclipsed the amount made with fossil fuels for the first time in 2020, although it should be noted that part of the renewables figure comes from burning North American biomass wood pellets, a practice that many contest is worse for the environment than burning coal.  Following the report the UK government announced a large North Sea Transition Deal which includes funding for low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage, but also licenses to drill new offshore oil and gas wells.  Coincidentally, it is now being projected that 2021 will be the first year on record to see global CO2 concentrations 50% above the pre-industrial era for more than just a few days. 

Pedestrian Pandemic

As you might have gathered, I'm a wannabe wonk.  I think statistics can be illuminating and that assessing data is essential.  But I am, perhaps mercifully, going to try my best to keep them to a minimum in this segment, as it's clear that, by themselves, raw numbers usually fail to create sufficient political will to create change.  You'll understand what I mean in a moment.

Earlier this month, Smart Growth America and the National Complete Streets Coalition released their annual report, Dangerous By Design.  It takes a look at the often invisible deaths of pedestrians in the United States, and has been doing so since 2009.  During the decade of the 2010s it estimates that there were over 53,000 such victims of our transport system.  There is a clear and significant upward trend throughout the decade and the toll is higher than that of the previous one.  Needless to say, the deaths fall disproportionately on those in lower income brackets, the elderly and black and indigenous populations.  You may not be surprised to learn that the authors of these reports are by now getting a little emotional, to say the least.  Here are some choice quotes from prominent sections:

"Our current approach to addressing the rising number of people struck and killed while walking has been a total failure. It needs to be reconsidered or dropped altogether."

"We are tired and saddened to produce yet another edition of this report that reads so much like every other edition."

"This is a matter of life and death.  We fervently hope the next edition . . . will tell a different story."

In the interest of highlighting stories over stats, I'll mention that I am a pedestrian who moved to Tampa Bay in 2009, so the window of study here is of real interest to me.  Most days of the week I traverse a laughably emaciated transit system, streets without sidewalks as standard and a major 7-lane road to get to work.

In terms of the pure total of pedestrian deaths over the decade, Tampa Bay is the 4th most dangerous place in the country to not be the owner of a private car.  The 968 deaths recorded for the area amount to roughly one pedestrian life brought to an abrupt end every 4 days.  Controlling for population size and approximate walking rates gives each metro area a pedestrian danger score, under which Tampa Bay is ranked 8th in the country.  By this same measure 9 of the the top 13 most dangerous places to be a pedestrian in America are in Florida.  While Florida did adopt Complete Streets legislation in 2014 - that is, the idea that communities should be fit for purpose and not thrift store jigsaws with loads of missing pieces - the report concludes that "Florida's effort has failed to live up to its billing."

No matter how many years I read these statistics, or how often I think of the horrific vehicular violence happening at any given moment of the day, it's surprising, in a way, to read these numbers.  Because walking in Florida is a profoundly lonely experience.  It can feel like you're the only person out there, surrounded by owner-controlled-machines, presumably filled with people who did something right that you did not.  What a loser!  No wonder everyone strives to get a car.  It's a self-perpetuating cycle.  Oh wait, that's called a feedback loop.  But apparently, others are indeed out there walking.  So many in fact, that around 14 of them are killed each day nationally. 

While Dangerous by Design does acknowledge improvements that Florida has made in some areas, and that all levels of government have a role to play, the authors make it clear that the buck stops with the Florida Department of Transportation because they operate many of the roads in metro areas.  FDOT responded to the report with a series of defensive, deflective comments that suggest an overhaul to the current approach is not in the cards.  A couple of misguided bills currently going through the Florida house and senate that will result in the removal of many mid-block crosswalks are following the same old uninformed playbook.

At a time when there is a lot of discussion around changing our infrastructure to solve a myriad of problems, it is imperative that this century-long pedestrian pandemic is tackled in parallel.  A recent report on the adoption of renewable energy at the city level offered up Orlando as a case study, but it makes literally no mention of changes to transportation.  Considering that Greater Orlando ranks number one on the pedestrian danger index - so should really be rethinking it's entire approach to planning - this seems like an oversight.  Mayor of almost two decades Buddy Dyer is quoted elsewhere in the renewables report as saying:

"The transition to a zero-carbon economy presents tremendous economic development opportunities for Orlando . . . some that we are already beginning to see . . . improve public health."

I'm sure the people run down by electric cars in Orlando in the coming years will really appreciate the economic opportunities of the low-carbon transition.

To be clear, the Dangerous by Design report doesn't blame car drivers for this health crisis.  As in climate breakdown mitigation, individual behaviour and choices do matter, but significantly less so than the structural decisions that compel us to act in ways that are destructive.  Amazon drivers that are driving nonstop to meet delivery demands can't shoulder all the blame when they inevitably hit someone.  Neither, for that matter, can anybody that's rushing to get to work in time in the midst of an economic depression, in cities designed solely, it often seems, to make them travel as far of a distance as possible.  When both pedestrians and motorists fear for their jobs they are going to take more risky behaviour. 

And speed is a major factor in how much carnage we see.  A vehicle going 40 is exponentially more deadly than a vehicle going 20.  Streets that are designed to encourage the continuation of life encourage motorists to maintain safer speeds.  If you need evidence of this, you need look no further than the hindsight year of 2020.  Preliminary data from the National Safety Council suggests that while the number of vehicle miles travelled fell by 13% due to the coronavirus, the total number of deaths on the roads went up by 8%.  The reason?  The relative lack of traffic led drivers to move at faster average speeds, increasing collisions and suffering.  Congestion on American roads is like the effect of particulate aerosols on global heating: the reduction of one hazard leads to an increase in the other.  Almost as if the whole approach to designing transport systems - like energy systems - needs a fundamental overhaul.  You know, like the damn report suggests.  If, for whatever reason, you don't like the idea of more enforcement, of police taking on yet more work in roles that they may or may not be qualified to take on fairly, then you should be calling for more streets that naturally calm traffic, because they would do a lot of the heavy lifting to solve this problem.

Here's just one example of how current planning guidelines prioritise speed over safety.  Slip lanes are intended to allow drivers to cut through a corner without slowing down.  The island of concrete that it creates for a lucky pedestrian to stand on and the main sidewalk may have a performative crosswalk between them.  So drivers are being told to stop on a dime if someone is crossing whilst simultaneously being told to maintain their current speed.  It risks life to save seconds of travel time without a thought for the time it costs a pedestrian to cross the extra lane, or indeed, recover in hospital.  That is a sociopathic design.  It's dangerous by design and it should be abolished.  Anybody that isn't a sociopath can look at it critically and see that it's an anti-life choice of infrastructure.  I believe that includes the vast majority of people driving cars. 

What are the mental health tolls of this state of affairs on drivers whose cars kill people?  What about the ones so traumatised by their experience that they can no longer drive, and so become more likely victims of road violence themselves?  If dead predominantly poor folks isn't enough to bring about a shift then how about the motorist survivors guilt that comes with the U.S.'s 100+ road fatalities every single day?  All of these individuals are victims of decisions made without their consultation.

What this entire depressing picture shows is just how difficult change can be when there's money to be made from the status quo.  Society isn't designed for cars over people by accident.  As we often say about what's needed to stop climate change, the problems are not technological.  They are political and economic.  The people using the most responsible mode of transport in terms of pollution deserve to be able to step outside without fear.